At this portfolio size, tax planning, estate structure, and multi-asset coordination matter a lot. It's worth talking to an advisor.
All figures in 2026 dollars (inflation-adjusted).
Same portfolio, same allocation, different spending levels.
Based on your current scenario. All balances in 2026 dollars.
| Start Year | End Balance | Lowest Point | Context |
|---|
Data
Annual returns for U.S. stocks (S&P 500 total return), 10-year Treasury bonds, and CPI inflation from 1871 to 2024. Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University.
Inflation
There is no assumed inflation rate. Each simulation year uses the actual historical CPI from that year. If you test starting year 1965, you get the real 1970s stagflation (7-14% annually). If you test 2000, you get the actual low inflation of the early 2000s. This means every disruption that actually happened, wars, oil crises, pandemics, is already reflected in the results.
Your annual spending is adjusted each year by that year's real inflation, exactly as it would be in practice. All ending balances are then deflated back to starting-year purchasing power (shown as "2026 dollars") so you see real wealth, not inflated numbers.
Historical averages in the dataset
Approach
Each historical year is tested as a possible starting year. Spending is withdrawn at the start of each year and adjusted for that year's actual inflation. The remaining balance earns the weighted stock/bond return for that year. The portfolio is rebalanced annually to the target allocation.
Success means the portfolio lasted the full time horizon without running out.