Your "safe" cash quietly lost 20% of its value since 2020.
The number on the screen didn't change. What it buys did. That's the risk nobody warns you about.
US CPI, cumulative 2020 to 2024
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Stuff you maybe didn't know
6,000 expert forecasts. Right 47% of the time. Worse than a coin flip.
CXO Advisory tracked 6,627 predictions from 68 of the most cited Wall Street forecasters between 1998 and 2012. You'd do better flipping a coin.
CXO Advisory · 6,627 predictions · 68 forecasters · 1998-2012
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The S&P 500 has never lost money over any 20-year window. Ever.
Since 1926, through wars, depressions, pandemics. The market wasn't the problem, faulty portfolio design was.
S&P Dow Jones Indices · rolling returns since 1926
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Your private equity isn't safer. It's just unmeasured.
Real estate and private equity look stable because nobody marks them to market. The risk doesn't disappear, you just stopped measuring it. Smooth lines, same storms underneath.
Observation across alternative markets
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Most portfolios are built around the product, not you.
Goals first, constraints second, products dead last. Not complicated. It's just not how most firms make money. As if basketing people is the best way.
Industry practice · 20 years of observation
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Have two minutes?
Two-minute overview of my philosophy on portfolios, advisors, and what actually matters in asset management.
Read Online · 2 minTry this before you read anything
What happens when you miss the market's best days
What if you'd invested $1M in the S&P 500 in 2003 and missed only the market's best days?
Miss just 10 of the 5,040 trading days over twenty years, 0.2% of the time, and you cut your outcome in half. Compounding is unforgiving about the days you sit out.
$6.48M
Final value, $1M invested 2003
If you'd stayed fully invested for 20 years through every panic, correction, crash and melt-up.
Data: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets 2024, S&P 500 total return, Jan 2003 to Dec 2023. Seven of the ten best days fall within two weeks of a worst day.
Read more about markets →Only got two minutes?
The Quick Read
A two-minute overview of my philosophy on portfolios, the role of an advisor, and what actually matters when managing wealth. This is the foundation the rest of the series builds on.
Essays
Overview upshot of my investment philosophy
Essay 01
On Asset Management
How I think about portfolios, the role of an advisor, and what matters most when managing wealth.
Key Insights
Start with goals, not products
A real fiduciary earns no commissions
Simpler portfolios usually win
Essay 02
On Markets
What markets actually do versus what people think they do. Why predictions fail. What history teaches about patience and structure.
Key Insights
Predictions don't work, and don't need to
Time in the market beats timing the market
The right benchmark is your goals, not the S&P
Essay 03
On Risk
What risk actually is and isn't. Volatility versus permanent loss. The psychology of fear and why people sell at the worst time.
Key Insights
Volatility isn't risk, permanent loss is
Risk tolerance ≠ risk capacity
Portfolio design is what survives your worst instincts
Market Notes
On the New World Order?
The old rules are bending. What a multi-polar world means for portfolios built on decades of American exceptionalism.
On Tariffs & Trade Wars
Supply chains, margins, and who actually pays. The noise is loud, the signal is quieter, and portfolios built for one regime don't always survive the next.
On the Rate Environment
Where rates are, where they're going, and why it matters less than the financial media suggests. Duration, credit, and the quiet role of cash.
On the AI Trade
Separating the structural shift from the hype. Where the value sits, what's priced in, and the Samsung/Oracle exception.
Who We Are
Ironbark
I am a simple person with a simple idea: portfolios should serve people, not the other way around.